Market Recap Jul 30, 2015


Indexes opened with mild losses to start the day but buyers came in late which is usually what you like to see. The S&P 500 finished flat while the NASDAQ gained 0.33%. In economic news, U.S. gross domestic product came in at 2.3%, slightly below economists’ estimates. The department revised its first-quarter GDP reading to a 0.6% increase from a 0.2% contraction.

Both the indexes are at or near their big yellow blobs (long trading ranges). The NASDAQ is – once again – trying to escape. At this point trying to play an index breakout has led to failures so many times that traders will be reticent to believe the next one as they will just assume it will fail.

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Market Recap Jul 17, 2015


Hello Readers: Last notice. If you did not take the ST quarterly survey Tuesday, please take 30 seconds and answer just a few short questions. Thank you.

Quick Note from Blain: Friendly reminder, Mark Minervini’s $1500 coupon expires this Sunday at midnight for those interested in attending this year’s Master Trader Workshop with Mark Minervini, David Ryan, and special guest Dan Zanger.

Bulls polished off a great week with a quiet Friday as the S&P 500 gained 0.11% and the NASDAQ 0.91%. Tech stocks were on fire as Google (GOOG) led to buying across the space. Inflation remains benign as the June consumer price index (CPI) showed a fifth-straight month of increase with a rise of 0.3 percent, in-line with estimates. Stripping out food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 0.2 percent after rising 0.1 percent in May. Housing starts rebounded strongly in June, up 9.8 percent, and building permits surged to a near eight-year high.

Kicking the can down the road again? Mission accomplished.

The European Council approved a 7.16 billion euro ($7.7 billion) short-term loan to Greece. Germany’s parliament voted in favor of authorizing its finance ministry to negotiate a third bailout with Greece.

The NASDAQ clearly broke to new highs as the S&P 500 is peaking its head out of this nearly half year range.

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Market Recap Jul 16, 2015


Hello Readers: If you did not take the ST quarterly survey Tuesday, please take 30 seconds and answer just a few short questions. Thank you.

After a quiet day of rest it was back to a positive tone Thursday as indexes gapped up big at the open and stayed positive all session. Greece seems increasingly in the rear view as the consensus now is a deal will happen and cans will be kicked down the road (a position we have offered to our readers continuously for 3 months), and positive earnings have buoyed spirits. The S&P 500 gained 0.80% and the NASDAQ 1.26%.

European stocks closed higher amid news that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi confirmed an increase in emergency funding to Greece by 900 million euros ($978 million) over one week. He added the ECB would “grant in principle a 3-year ESM stability support to Greece, subject to the completion of relevant national procedures.” Following the central bank relief announcement, a senior Greek official confirmed that banks would reopen on Monday. The local banks and Athens exchange have been closed for more than two weeks. Greece will implement changes to value added tax from Monday, the finance ministry said in a Reuters report. The move fulfills a key pledge in the bailout deal the cash-strapped country reached with international creditors. Very early Thursday morning, Greece’s parliament approved a stringent reform bill amid violent protests by locals. The legislation paves the way for financial aid worth 86 billion euros ($94 billion).

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STTG Market Recap Apr 23, 2015


After last Friday’s selloff on the China news, this week has been generally quite positive as the earnings parade has been unleashed. Today was another such day as a slight negative open was bought and the S&P 500 finished up 0.24% and the NASDAQ 0.41%. New home sales for March came in weaker than expected, at 481,000 in March, versus the 510,000 unit estimate. Overseas, China’s flash purchasing managers index from HSBC Holdings dropped to 49.2 for April, the lowest since April last year, underscoring a slowdown that prompted China’s central bank to cut banks’ reserve requirements by the most since 2008. Any reading below 50 signifies contraction.

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STTG Market Recap Mar 24, 2015


Inflation data caused a bit of a selloff Tuesday as the S&P 500 fell 0.61% and the NASDAQ 0.32%. Inflation has been very benign in the U.S. during this Fed easing cycle and appears to be the only thing aside from a booming economy that will move the Fed to tighten. While today’s numbers were really quite benign, some pointed to the core CPI figure as a thing to worry about – but reality is it will take months on end of unexpected inflation to really force the Fed’s hand.

U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in February, in line with analysts’ expectations, the Labor Department said. The gain came after dropping 0.7% the previous month. The so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, increased 0.2% in February after a similar gain in January. In the 12 months through February, the core CPI rose 1.7%, the largest increase since November.

In other economic news, February new home sales rose 7.8% to 539,000, the highest level in seven years.

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STTG Market Recap Mar 2, 2015


The train keeps on rolling as we’ve exited the best month in a few years and entered March with a bang. The S&P 500 gained 0.61% and the NASDAQ 0.90% to kick off the new month. NASDAQ 5000 has become a rallying cry for much of the financial media and today that level was hit. This was the first time it has crossed this level since March 2000 i.e. the month that the great crash began. By October 2002, the NASDAQ had fallen all the way back to the 1100 level! Relatively modest economic news had no effect on animal spirits:

ISM Manufacturing for February was 52.9, its slowest pace in 13 months; any reading over 50 signals expansion. Construction spending fell 1.1 percent in January. Personal income increased of 0.3 percent, while personal spending fell 0.2 percent in January.

People were more interested in news out of China – remember all central bank easing is a “good thing” to investors in this era.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.35 percent on Saturday—the second cut in three months—as deteriorating economic conditions forced the central bank to shorten the time gap between policy moves.

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STTG Market Recap Jan 29, 2015


Thursday was much the opposite of Wednesday; yesterday the market was up thru mid afternoon then suffered significant selling late. Today indexes were down thru mid afternoon and then buyers showed up. It’s a very volatile market right now and not one that is very simple to deal with. The S&P 500 gained 0.95% and the NASDAQ 0.98%. Some dovish comments Janet Yellen made to lawmakers and oil not dropping yet again helped the mood some today.

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STTG Market Recap Jan 23, 2015


Friday was a generally quiet session until the closing 90 minutes when sellers came in; the S&P 500 fell 0.55% while the NASDAQ gained 0.16%. A pretty significant warning by shipper UPS might be something to watch for an economic perspective – this is a company that moves a lot of goods around the country. Maybe it was just specific to the Christmas season but if there is another warning down the road it could be something bigger. In economic news, the National Association of Realtors said on Friday existing home sales increased 2.4% to an annual rate of 5.04 million units last month. Economists had forecast sales rising to a 5.06-million-unit pace. For all of 2014, existing home sales fell 3.1% to 4.93 million. That was the first annual drop since 2010.

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