VRX +$10,010.55 (+29.26%)

Posted by: Blain on Dec 5, 2015 09:49am



Summary

Symbol
Qty
Cost
Avg Buy
Avg Sell
Return
Return $
Return %
R
Stop
Result
VRX
440
$34,218.25
$77.77
$100.52
$22.75
$10,010.55
29.26%
0.79
$49.00
Win


History

Action
Date
Shares
$
Value
Com $
Risk
Buy
11/05/2015 08:34:00 AM
20
$89.05
$1,781.00
$0.00
$801.00
Buy
11/05/2015 12:12:00 PM
20
$79.72
$1,594.40
$0.00
$614.40
Buy
11/06/2015 08:34:00 AM
10
$81.93
$819.30
$0.00
$329.30
Buy
11/06/2015 08:49:00 AM
10
$78.98
$789.80
$0.00
$299.80
Buy
11/06/2015 01:09:00 PM
10
$84.15
$841.50
$0.00
$351.50
Buy
11/09/2015 09:17:00 AM
10
$82.32
$823.20
$0.00
$333.20
Buy
11/09/2015 02:59:00 PM
10
$85.32
$853.20
$0.00
$363.20
Buy
11/09/2015 02:59:58 PM
20
$85.38
$1,707.60
$0.00
$727.60
Buy
11/10/2015 11:35:52 AM
20
$84.50
$1,690.00
$0.00
$710.00
Buy
11/10/2015 12:24:12 PM
20
$85.50
$1,710.00
$0.00
$730.00
Buy
11/11/2015 09:59:41 AM
10
$80.99
$809.88
$0.00
$319.88
Buy
11/11/2015 01:59:00 PM
10
$79.09
$790.90
$0.00
$300.90
Buy
11/12/2015 02:54:21 PM
20
$74.03
$1,480.60
$0.00
$500.60
Buy
11/13/2015 08:31:32 AM
30
$75.09
$2,252.70
$0.00
$782.70
Buy
11/13/2015 08:34:00 AM
20
$73.10
$1,462.00
$0.00
$482.00
Buy
11/13/2015 09:07:33 AM
10
$74.55
$745.50
$0.00
$255.50
Buy
11/13/2015 09:53:50 AM
10
$74.71
$747.10
$0.00
$257.10
Buy
11/13/2015 12:15:40 PM
20
$74.94
$1,498.80
$0.00
$518.80
Buy
11/13/2015 01:09:07 PM
20
$76.00
$1,520.00
$0.00
$540.00
Buy
11/16/2015 08:55:00 AM
20
$73.10
$1,461.95
$0.00
$481.95
Buy
11/16/2015 01:54:00 PM
10
$74.62
$746.20
$0.00
$256.20
Buy
11/17/2015 08:49:55 AM
10
$71.21
$712.10
$0.00
$222.10
Buy
11/17/2015 09:26:17 AM
20
$72.50
$1,450.00
$0.00
$470.00
Buy
11/17/2015 02:55:14 PM
10
$70.15
$701.50
$0.00
$211.50
Buy
11/18/2015 09:33:43 AM
20
$72.46
$1,449.15
$0.00
$469.15
Buy
11/18/2015 10:17:04 AM
20
$74.10
$1,481.98
$0.00
$501.98
Buy
11/19/2015 08:47:45 AM
10
$75.59
$755.90
$0.00
$265.90
Buy
11/19/2015 08:51:32 AM
20
$77.10
$1,542.00
$0.00
$562.00
Sell
12/02/2015 09:43:00 AM
220
$100.49
$22,107.80
$0.00
Sell
12/02/2015 09:47:00 AM
220
$100.55
$22,121.00
$0.00


Notes

Merrill Edge $0 trades, thanks StockBrokers.com!
http://www.stockbrokers.com/review/merrilledge

http://www.wsj.com/articles/activist-investor-bill-ackman-plays-defense-1446689963
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000442877

*Aug 14: Sanders & Cummings send letter to VRX on price increases
*Sep 21: Turing CEO on CNBC (Left says he starts looking at VRX)
*Sep 28: House Dems request VRX subpoena re: price increases
*Oct 2: 2nd Citron report on VRX (more on price increases)
*Oct 14: VRX responds to Sen McCaskill letter re: price increases, access; VRX discloses 2 subpoenas from MA, NY AGs
*Oct 19: VRX Q3 earnings: mentions Philidor for first time; SIRF report on VRX
*Oct 20: Citron Left tweet, "$VRX has a better chance of going to 0 then $HLF EVER will. Citron to update full story on Monday. Dirtier than anyone has reported!"
*Oct 21: 3rd Citron report on VRX (compares with Enron), "$VRX has a better chance of going to 0 then $HLF EVER will. Citron puts target price at $50. Ackman buys 2 million more shares at approx $108.
Oct 30: Ackman Presentation. VRX announces it will terminate its relationship with Philidor. "In a four-hour call, Mr. Ackman defended Valeant’s business model and its management, but pointed to missteps in its handling of the crisis. He said that Valeant’s business was fundamentally strong, that investors had overreacted and that the stock was undervalued. In the middle of the call, a tweet by Mr. Left, the short seller, threatened more bad news. Valeant shares closed down nearly 16%. Mr. Left didn’t make new accusations, but he subsequently slammed Mr. Ackman as lacking “moral indignation” against Valeant for its drug markups."
*Nov 5: Continued volatility; WSJ reporting that Hedge Fund investor Bill Ackman may be considering selling shares. AM. CNBC reports Ackman still supports CEO Pearson -- just sent him an email. PM. Pershing Square Holdings releases complete communication sent from Bill Ackman to Valeant Pharm'a (VRX) CEO. Evening.
*Nov 6: Valeant Pharma issues a statement on sales of its stock; 1,297,399 shares pledged to Goldman Sachs to secure loans made to CEO Michael Pearson were sold. News broke of loan 1 mil share sale Nov 5th. "Valeant Pharma (VRX) CEO sold 1,297,000 shares at $74.64-84.26 worth ~$101.8 mln"
*Nov 9: Citron's Left: Mallinckrodt (MNK) 'worse' than Valeant.
*Nov 10: Left on CNBC discussing MNK and VRX: End of video... short in VRX is "significantly scaled down. Significantly from what it was originally. Obviously, look at the risk reward involved." http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/10/citron-researchs-left-mallinckrodt-not-a-pharmaceutical-company.html
*Nov 11: Valeant, Ackman must face insider trading suit - "lawsuit accusing them of insider trading in Allergan before making an unsuccessful takeover bid for the maker of Botox." http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/11/valeant-ackman-must-face-insider-trading-suit.html
*Nov 12: Valeant Pharma shares again lower, down 4.4% early this morning after Reuters reported that Valeant was heavily involved in the day-to-day operations of Philidor - http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/12/valeant-pharmacies-officers-idusl1n1361n720151112
*Nov 12: CNBC Did Valeant's CEO get $27M windfall after stock 'error'? http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/12/did-valeants-ceo-get-27-million-windfall-after-stock-error.html
*Nov 13: Example of kind of articles going around, "Valeant Investors: These 5 Companies Survived Major Accounting Scandals" Examples used are CEO fraud and similar, wow it has gotten ridiculous. http://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/15/11/5977157/valeant-investors-these-5-companies-survived-major-accounting-scandals#ixzz3rPKe8lA1
*Nov 16: Hedge Fund stakes reporting day. "Hedge fund Omega sold entire stake in Valeant: Einhorn" Had roughly 86.5 million shares on Sept. 30. Today Omega says "We are no longer in Valeant," Steven Einhorn said at the Reuters Global Investment Outlook Summit in New York. "We sold at higher prices." He did not say exactly when Omega exited its position.
*Nov 17: (7:42) Valeant Pharma target lowered to $98 from $200 at Morgan Stanley. 1st analyst target lowered to below $100.
*Nov 17: Bloomberg discusses that so far there were only 227 prescriptions for Valeant (VRX) female libido pill.
*Nov 17: Deeper analysis hedge funds - Valeant Takes Bite Out of More Funds - http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/11/17/valeant-takes-bite-out-of-more-funds/ - Many firms were adding to stakes in Q2 + Q3 2015.
*Nov 18: Briefing Valeant Pharma: Notes from this morning's presentation at Jefferies Conf. 1. VRX highlights diversified drug portfolio and limited patent risk. 2. Co is focused on organic growth and cash flow. 3. Co expects to reduce Salix inventories to 4-6 weeks by year end; sees Q4 Salix rev including IBS-D $600 mln ($700 mln ex-inventory reduction) 4. Will reduce leverage to under 4x adj. EBITDA by end of 2016
*Nov 19: Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX,VRX.TO) surged Thursday after research credit analyst Murali Ganti at Citigroup today initiated coverage on Valeant’s debt with an “overweight” rating. While the bank said Valeant has faced challenges recently, “we think much of the bad news has been priced in,” and the debt is “a compelling buying opportunity.” The Citigroup C, -0.46% note initiated coverage on Valeant’s debt with an “overweight” rating. While the bank said Valeant has faced challenges recently, “we think much of the bad news has been priced in,” and the debt is “a compelling buying opportunity.”
*Nov 20: Valeant Pharma to host an Investor Day on December 16, will provide updated financial guidance and discuss certain business operations and highlight various R&D programs. Analyst target lowered to $111 from $155 at Mizuho
*Nov 22 (Sun): Concerns Over Valeant Spread to Other Drug Makers - http://www.wsj.com/articles/concerns-over-valeant-spread-to-other-drug-makers-1448240861
*Nov 23: WSJ - Ackman’s Pershing Square Boosts Stake in Valeant to 9.9% from 5.7% (news broke after close)
"Pershing Square’s latest acquisitions are primarily shares underlying call options. The fund bought 2.1 million common shares and call options tied to 12.5 million shares for a total of about $475 million. It also sold options, garnering $169 million.
The fund now beneficially owns 34.1 million shares, which include 21.6 million common shares, along with the 12.5 million shares underlying options. As of Monday’s close at $87.41, the investment is valued at about $3 billion.
Its previous position was 5.7%, according to FactSet."
VIDEO - http://finance.yahoo.com/news/synthetic-stock-ackman-doubled-down-204808091.html - Ackman established two synthetic stock positions. See attached.
~~FIRST IS BET ON $101.75+ BY END OF JANUARY 2017~~
~~SECOND IS BET ON $101.18+ BY FEBRUARY 8TH 2016~~
*Nov 25: Valeant Pharma shares slump 3.5% pre-market after follow-up report from Bronte Capital. http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2015/11/philidor-20-valeant-and-stephen-king.html Post doesn't relay anything new besides listing out a variety of pharmacies that Valeant may be using in a similar fashion to Philidor. Volume pre hours to drive stock down was less than 100k shares. Now that Ackman is publicly done buying, simple bait and switch pieces like this can have impact.
*Nov 30: "Valeant Pharma resumed with a Sector Perform at CIBC"
*Nov 30: Stock hit on hard volume at approx 1:36 PM as rumor of FBI raid came over wires. Was completely false and stock rebounded within an hour.
*Dec 1: No news.
*Dec 15: "Valeant Pharma confirms new U.S. fulfillment agreements with Walgreens (WBA), along with additional participating independent pharmacies."
*Dec 16: "Valeant Pharma updates and lowers Q4, FY15 guidance, offers mixed FY16 guidance ahead of today's Investor Day" http://www.wsj.com/articles/valeant-pharmaceuticals-slashes-revenue-earnings-guidance-1450265878?mod=yahoo_hs
10:21 - "Investors seem to be welcoming the clarity of better than feared guidance after awaiting the impact of the company's cut ties with Philidor -- the specialty pharma that short sellers alleged (and reportedly) exercised some shady business practices."http://www.briefing.com/DisplayArticle/Article.aspx?ArticleId=NS20151216101954StoryStocks
*Dec 17: "Downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho. tgt raised to $130 from $111. Firm notes they still see modest upside in VRX valuation, even after the stock had an unexpectedly strong positive reaction to the Walgreens deal and yesterday's investor event. That said, they think there is now less certainty about Valeant "crushing the numbers" each quarter and they struggle to identify a near-term catalyst that could take the stock beyond the $130 per share inflection point without additional M&A or significant outperformance. This, taken together with its significant leverage and Philidor overhang, led to their downgrade."

11/10/15 - Big call this AM before market open put on by company to go over updates and answer any Qs. Market reaction was mixed pre hours then sold down after open but stabilized. 12:34 Citron's Left was on CNBC and reported his short in VRX is significantly scaled down. Stock popped, bought 20 shares into it $84.50, have another buy stop limit for another 20 at $85.50 then $86.50 HOD.

11/13/15 - Retesting $73.32 lows, goal today was adding another 100 shares. Ended up with another 110. Beautiful washout below and move back higher, closer right near hod. Will continue to add daily moving forward. Looking for 500 shares total.

11/19/15 - Big day today, established bottom. I bought my 30 shares early in day. Would have bought more into afternoon, especially $80 break, however was in meeting all day. Important to note a good chunk of these trades were made while traveling. *Also note, uploaded "rebuttals" document from Valeant website. Paints good picture of all random company blasting that's been done as of late.

12/2/15 - After a big day yesterday on no news, felt stock would gap through $100 this morning. Was up towards $100 but didn't gap higher, took after open to break through, got 220 limit filled $100.49 on big spike higher (fantastic fill actually as it was peak of bar that surged through $100. Then stock broke to $101, pulled back to $100, recalculated and needed $100.55 fill on remainder to lock in $10k winner. Put in limit order, got filled several minutes later. Wow... can't believe it... what a journey, so much fun. Ready for the next one :)

testing



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