Market Recap Oct 8, 2015


It’s been a great ride since the bad news on employment Friday morning. Today that continued as the Fed minutes showed the “doves are back in town” and a red day in the market turned green instantly. The S&P 500 gained 0.88% and the NASDAQ 0.41%; both indexes had been in red all day until 2 PM. Bad news = good news = the Fed has our backs forevermore.

“I think you got a little more clarity on what the Fed was thinking. The decision to not raise rates was more collaborative than people thought. The call really wasn’t that close,” said Peter Coleman, head trader at Convergex. He added the minutes showed the Fed was concerned about not reaching its inflation target in the near term.

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Market Recap Oct 7, 2015


Things have been pretty positive in the market since the bad employment data Friday morning. That continued today as the S&P 500 rallied 0.80% and the NASDAQ 0.90%. News flow was again quiet as people turn away from the Fed and economic news and start to look at the upcoming earnings season.

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Market Recap Oct 6, 2015


Indexes were down but that should be no surprise as they entered today at the most overbought levels on one of our key indicators in the entire year of 2015. The S&P 500 fell 0.36% and the NASDAQ 0.69%. As we wrote yesterday the key here is not to fall significantly but work off the overbought conditions with small loses/sideways action. News flow was very quiet.

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Market Recap Oct 2, 2015


Friday was an interesting – and dare I say sort of bullish – day. Indexes were up strongly ahead of the 8:30 AM employment data as traders apparently expected status quo but then the data came out quite poorly. Futures screamed downward and we had a very poor open. However by mid day all those losses were erased and another wave of buyers came in late in the day. When weak opens are bought aggressively that is generally a good sign; let’s see if there is more of that next week.

“You did have the reversal, which was healthy,” said Qunicy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial. “The initial reaction shows you that bad news that actually became bad news. … You could argue the market had a change of attitude, that bad news is good news, but I think this is the market probing and testing (the lows).”

Maybe we are back to “bad news = good news = MORE Fed.” The S&P 500 gained 1.43% and the NASDAQ 1.74%. Fed futures now have pushed out a rate hike from this year to March at the earliest. Recall, 4-5 months ago these were pointing to a September hike so it appears we may never get another hike ever since apparently the Fed may now only rate hikes in a perfect economy.

Few analysts could find any positives in the September jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy created 142,000 jobs, a number far below the expected 203,000. August and July figures were also revised lower by 59,000. Economists had been expecting the report to show 203,000 new jobs. Unemployment held at 5.1%; the participation rate plunged to 62.4, its lowest since October 1977. The total labor force fell to a 2015 low, losing another 350,000 people.

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STTG Market Recap Apr 9, 2015


Morning selling led to afternoon buyers which is more the type of actions bulls want to see. After being in the red much of the morning indexes finished positive with the S&P 500 up 0.45% and the NASDAQ 0.48%. We now enter earnings season which “might” be the first negative quarter in years.

Analysts have slashed corporate profit projections, predicting a slump through September. Earnings fell 5.8% in the first quarter, they estimated, after having forecast an increase as recently as January.

The NASDAQ has now come out of this wedge pattern; the next test is to not fall right back in. If it can hold it will be a good sign. Still some work to do on the S&P 500.

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STTG Market Recap July 29, 2014


Indexes continue to stagnate in July as the S&P 500 fell 0.45% and the NASDAQ 0.05% due to a late day selloff. Sanctions versus Russia were heightened by the U.S. and Europe which some point to for the late selling. (Obama spoke on TV) The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence came in Tuesday at 90.9 in July, the highest reading since October 2007.

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STTG Market Recap January 31, 2014


Stocks finished the first month of 2014 worse than any month in 2013. In fact, it was the first loss of any kind for a month since August. In a way this is not surprising as most entered the year extremely ebullient and when everyone is happy that means too many people are on the same side of the boat. Add to that another parabolic rise in the market late in 2013 and no one able to identify one problem area in the world and the conditions were set in place for some downside surprises. Friday was a good symbol for the entire past week, which has been incredibly volatile. Stocks opened down sharply at the open, spent the day working back to flat until about 3 PM, and then a late day selloff hit taking away about half the gains from the previous few hours. The S&P 500 fell 0.65% and the NASDAQ 0.47%. The next few weeks will be interesting as each time the market was down 3-5% in 2013, we had a V shaped move right back up as buyers overwhelmed sellers.

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STTG Market Recap December 9, 2013


In a very quiet session, stocks gapped up to open the session and moved in a very narrow range for most of the day. The S&P 500 added 0.18% and the NASDAQ 0.15%. We had a 5 day “correction” prior to Friday but the big surge that day plus today’s gains has erased just about all those losses in the major indexes. News flow was very light as we come off a very heavy week of economic data last week; the only major report this week will be retail sales Thursday.

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