Market Recap Oct 2, 2015


Friday was an interesting – and dare I say sort of bullish – day. Indexes were up strongly ahead of the 8:30 AM employment data as traders apparently expected status quo but then the data came out quite poorly. Futures screamed downward and we had a very poor open. However by mid day all those losses were erased and another wave of buyers came in late in the day. When weak opens are bought aggressively that is generally a good sign; let’s see if there is more of that next week.

“You did have the reversal, which was healthy,” said Qunicy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial. “The initial reaction shows you that bad news that actually became bad news. … You could argue the market had a change of attitude, that bad news is good news, but I think this is the market probing and testing (the lows).”

Maybe we are back to “bad news = good news = MORE Fed.” The S&P 500 gained 1.43% and the NASDAQ 1.74%. Fed futures now have pushed out a rate hike from this year to March at the earliest. Recall, 4-5 months ago these were pointing to a September hike so it appears we may never get another hike ever since apparently the Fed may now only rate hikes in a perfect economy.

Few analysts could find any positives in the September jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy created 142,000 jobs, a number far below the expected 203,000. August and July figures were also revised lower by 59,000. Economists had been expecting the report to show 203,000 new jobs. Unemployment held at 5.1%; the participation rate plunged to 62.4, its lowest since October 1977. The total labor force fell to a 2015 low, losing another 350,000 people.

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STTG Market Recap Apr 9, 2015


Morning selling led to afternoon buyers which is more the type of actions bulls want to see. After being in the red much of the morning indexes finished positive with the S&P 500 up 0.45% and the NASDAQ 0.48%. We now enter earnings season which “might” be the first negative quarter in years.

Analysts have slashed corporate profit projections, predicting a slump through September. Earnings fell 5.8% in the first quarter, they estimated, after having forecast an increase as recently as January.

The NASDAQ has now come out of this wedge pattern; the next test is to not fall right back in. If it can hold it will be a good sign. Still some work to do on the S&P 500.

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STTG Market Recap July 29, 2014


Indexes continue to stagnate in July as the S&P 500 fell 0.45% and the NASDAQ 0.05% due to a late day selloff. Sanctions versus Russia were heightened by the U.S. and Europe which some point to for the late selling. (Obama spoke on TV) The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence came in Tuesday at 90.9 in July, the highest reading since October 2007.

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STTG Market Recap January 31, 2014


Stocks finished the first month of 2014 worse than any month in 2013. In fact, it was the first loss of any kind for a month since August. In a way this is not surprising as most entered the year extremely ebullient and when everyone is happy that means too many people are on the same side of the boat. Add to that another parabolic rise in the market late in 2013 and no one able to identify one problem area in the world and the conditions were set in place for some downside surprises. Friday was a good symbol for the entire past week, which has been incredibly volatile. Stocks opened down sharply at the open, spent the day working back to flat until about 3 PM, and then a late day selloff hit taking away about half the gains from the previous few hours. The S&P 500 fell 0.65% and the NASDAQ 0.47%. The next few weeks will be interesting as each time the market was down 3-5% in 2013, we had a V shaped move right back up as buyers overwhelmed sellers.

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STTG Market Recap December 9, 2013


In a very quiet session, stocks gapped up to open the session and moved in a very narrow range for most of the day. The S&P 500 added 0.18% and the NASDAQ 0.15%. We had a 5 day “correction” prior to Friday but the big surge that day plus today’s gains has erased just about all those losses in the major indexes. News flow was very light as we come off a very heavy week of economic data last week; the only major report this week will be retail sales Thursday.

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STTG Market Recap August 19, 2013


The correction continues as we are now reaching extreme oversold conditions; a snap back rally should be expected at any time. Markets started mixed, with the NASDAQ leading as a select group of go to names such as Apple, Google, Baidu, Facebook, Priceline and LinkedIn saw a rotation into them. However breadth was poor even in the morning and as the day wore on more and more stocks went negative. Eventually even the NASDAQ went red and markets finished down across the board. The small cap Russell 2000 was down nearly 1.1% which showed a better picture of what happened today as the larger capitalization indexes such as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ only fell 0.59% and 0.38% respectively. While not rare in normal times, this is the first 4 day losing streak of 2013. Economic news is very light this week with the big event coming Wednesday with the Federal Reserve meeting minutes released, so it was more of the same – higher interest rates on bonds are pressuring equities.

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STTG Market Recap Apr 8, 2013


Stocks continued their bounce off the Friday morning lows, and with a late day rally indeed erased all those losses, closing above Thursday’s final prices. There was no real news to explain the move, it seems to just be the well ingrained buy the dip mentality. The S&P 500 gained 0.63% and the NASDAQ 0.57%. Small caps continued their third day of outperformance after a horrible start to the previous week, gaining 0.89%. After the bell, Alcoa (AA) kicked off earnings season with a slight beat but other than being the first to start off this period, it usually has little impact. More important names come late this week and the following few.

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