Market Recap Oct 2, 2015


Friday was an interesting – and dare I say sort of bullish – day. Indexes were up strongly ahead of the 8:30 AM employment data as traders apparently expected status quo but then the data came out quite poorly. Futures screamed downward and we had a very poor open. However by mid day all those losses were erased and another wave of buyers came in late in the day. When weak opens are bought aggressively that is generally a good sign; let’s see if there is more of that next week.

“You did have the reversal, which was healthy,” said Qunicy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial. “The initial reaction shows you that bad news that actually became bad news. … You could argue the market had a change of attitude, that bad news is good news, but I think this is the market probing and testing (the lows).”

Maybe we are back to “bad news = good news = MORE Fed.” The S&P 500 gained 1.43% and the NASDAQ 1.74%. Fed futures now have pushed out a rate hike from this year to March at the earliest. Recall, 4-5 months ago these were pointing to a September hike so it appears we may never get another hike ever since apparently the Fed may now only rate hikes in a perfect economy.

Few analysts could find any positives in the September jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy created 142,000 jobs, a number far below the expected 203,000. August and July figures were also revised lower by 59,000. Economists had been expecting the report to show 203,000 new jobs. Unemployment held at 5.1%; the participation rate plunged to 62.4, its lowest since October 1977. The total labor force fell to a 2015 low, losing another 350,000 people.

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Market Recap Oct 1, 2015


There was an attempt at a gap up this morning to try to build on yesterday’s gains but that was met with a wave of selling once the market opened and ISM manufacturing data was released. Indexes were in the red most of the day, peaking at around 2 PM at which time buyers came in. In the end it looked like a mild day although there was quite a bit of volatility; the S&P 500 gained 0.20% and the NASDAQ 0.15%. The key economic report out Thursday, the September ISM manufacturing index, fell to the lowest level since May 2013 at 50.2, a decline from August’s 51.1 print. Below 50 signals contraction so it’s getting close! The government employment data will come in premarket tomorrow but at this point it is difficult to tell what the market wants – good news or bad news. The latter of course meaning more support from the Federal Reserve. Expectations are for 200,000 jobs and a steady 5.1% unemployment rate.

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Market Recap Sep 30, 2015


Since Friday we’ve said that the market was setting up for some type of significant bounce as the action was poor and eventually we’d hit an oversold level where there would be some buying came in. We also said it wouldn’t mean much in the big picture. So today was a bounce. And it doesn’t mean much in the big picture. The S&P 500 gained 1.91% and the NASDAQ 2.28% to narrow losses on a poor quarter. The major averages closed about 7% lower for the third quarter, their worst since 2011.

“I think there’s a lot of short covering going on. A lot of people looking at yesterday’s dip as a successful retest of the lows,” said Marc Chaikin, CEO of Chaikin Analytics. “We have to see how the market closes out this week and the first trading week of October.” “Nothing has changed fundamentally from yesterday to today except that most of the globe is rallying with weaker-than-expected data points, with the hope of more stimulus from central banks,” said Ryan Larson, head of U.S. equity trading at RBC Global Asset Management.

The September Chicago purchasing managers index came in at 48.7, below expectations of 53.0. (any reading below 50 signals contraction) Soft data in Japan and the euro zone boosted hopes of more stimulus in those regions. Japanese industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.5% in August for the second-straight month of declines, government data showed. So it looks like we are back to “bad news = good news = more central bank intervention” globally.

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Market Recap Sep 29, 2015


Indexes swung around the unchanged line most of the day but by the end of the session the S&P 500 had gained 0.12% while the NASDAQ continued to slump to the tune of 0.59%. Goldman Sachs cut its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 by 5% to 2,000 on Tuesday, citing a combination of the slower pace of economic activity in China and the U.S. and the fall in oil prices.

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Market Recap Sep 28, 2015


Investors came back from a bad week in U.S. indexes to…. a rotten day. The S&P 500 tumbled 2.57% and the NASDAQ 3.03%. Biotech stocks – market leaders for years – continue to get crushed. September and October often have some of the worst months in the indexes and this September has been true to form. New York Fed President William Dudley said the central bank will likely raise rates this year , Dow Jones reported. He noted international events have created uncertainty about the U.S. outlook.

On the economic front, August personal income data showed an increase of 0.3% in personal income and a 0.4% increase in consumer spending, roughly in-line with estimates. August pending home sales posted a decline of 1.4%, missing expectations of a slight gain. Pending home sales are still 6.1% from a year ago.

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